How Can the Gaza-Israel Conflict Affect the 2024 American Elections?

The November 2024 United States elections are approaching, and much is indeed at stake as far as both domestic politics and foreign policies are concerned. In particular, with the pressing issue of the international importance of the Israel-Palestine conflict, it is crucial to consider how exactly this might affect the political framework of the United States, which has indeed not appeared “shy” in getting involved in the matter. How will the United States’ stance on this delicate and ever-present issue affect the upcoming elections? Indeed, different approaches are supposedly put forward by the Biden Democrats and the Trump Republicans. Yet, how actually different are these?

Democrats Division vs. Republicans Cohesion 

In general, the United States position towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has stayed consistent over time, regardless of its governing party. Namely, the United States fundamentally tends to provide support to Israel, and especially the Democrats have always proposed a “two-state solution” to the conflict. Arguably, the main difference between Democrats and Republicans lies with their approach to foreign policy, which can be more nuanced or rather aggressive.

On one hand, Joe Biden finds himself in a politically sensitive situation whereby he struggles to find a solution between his strong Zionist beliefs and his failure to satisfy a large part of his own political side. Accordingly, left-wing voters, and especially the American youth, are sympathetic with the Palestinian cause and are deeply concerned with the dramatic situation unfolding in Gaza, and rightfully so.

On the other hand, Republican Donald Trump does not seem to have a problem declaring himself pro-Israel. On multiple occasions, Trump explicitly announced his support for Israel’s war on Gaza, and he is openly (and, arguably, undemocratically) in line with the Israeli government’s goal of keeping up the assault until “total victory.” This way, he acts in way less nuanced terms. Indeed, the presence and influence of evangelicals among the Republicans, including the new House Speaker Mike Johnson, is an underlying reason for his unconditional support of Israel. Moreover, the growing conservative Islamophobic sentiment, which is well known and undeniable among the Republicans, has always been exploited by Trump through his populist tendencies, which creates further bias among the Republicans’ stance within the Israel-Palestinian scenario.

This situation may indeed carry weight over the 2024 elections and especially seems to negatively affect Biden. For years, the Democrats have been divided over the question of Israel-Palestine, as opposed to the Republicans, who unambiguously stand for the same cause. As such, the current internal crisis among the Democrats makes it a tricky situation for Biden.

A Threat to Democracy: Are the Values of Citizens Really Reflected in the United States Foreign Policies?

Although Biden acknowledged the urge to address the suffering of the marginalized Palestinian population in Gaza by, for instance, providing humanitarian aid at the Egyptian border, his stance remains pro-Israel, and his actions may be deemed contradictory. Therefore, does any of Biden’s and Trump’s approaches truly democratically reflect the position of many American citizens?

Protests keep rising among the various American states, where citizens actively call for justice against the evident ongoing war crimes committed by Israel against Gaza. The death of George Floyd and the Black Lives Matter movement in 2020 significantly influenced most American young people and led them to consider the systemic violence and oppression of blacks in the United States as comparable to the current situation of Palestinians in Gaza. As such, the left wing has become increasingly critical of Biden’s support for the far-right government of Israel. A significant number of protests took place in the states of Michigan and Minnesota. Of particular relevance for the 2024 elections is Michigan, which is not only a swing state but also has a large Muslim population and whose political leaders are deeply critical of Biden’s attitude toward the Israeli-Palestinian scenario.

Concluding Remarks

The past has shown us that foreign policy matters do not carry massive weight or determine the outcome of the United States national elections, and American citizens often demonstrate that their main concern lies with “day-to-day issues” regarding the economy or social issues including immigration, abortion, and LGBTQ+ rights. However, will the 2024 elections take the same turn? Might the situation of extreme hardship and violence in Gaza reverse this trend? Arguably, from an international human rights perspective, it indeed should.

The current political situation seems to indicate that this is a very close election. Actually, statistics show that Trump currently holds an advantage in the national polls and among swing states, whose vote obviously carries the most significant weight. Therefore, the current situation of crisis among Democrats regarding the war in Gaza is indeed not helpful for Biden. Plus, Trump’s constant criticism of the current government as “weakened,”  embodied by the image of Biden and his old age, goes in contrast to his ideal of a powerful and “great” America. This relevantly influences voters who are attracted by this ideal of power and strength, even when it does not necessarily coincide with competence and wisdom. Hereby, populism seems to win again.

Although neither candidate took an adequate stance over the immense human rights violations and war crimes currently impacting Palestinians, Trump appears to be advocating the most alarming policies and ideas. At least it is comforting to know that Democrats feel a strong dislike for Trump. In particular, those on the left who support Palestine will certainly distance themselves from Trump’s unequivocal and highly aggressive pro-Israel stance, even if Biden fails to sufficiently address their concerns. It is enough to think that Trump promised to reinstate the travel ban on nationals of Muslim-majority countries and extend it to refugees from Gaza if he wins the elections.

In any event, it is unfortunate to admit that whatever the outcome of the 2024 elections may be, it is unlikely that it will radically change the overarching course of the United States’ involvement in the situation in Gaza-Israel. Indeed, the increasing death toll in Gaza and the pressure from the pro-Palestine left will have a greater likelihood of influencing the policies of a Democratic government than a Republican one. At the same time, we might as well hope that even Republicans will exhibit some level of human rights common sense.

By The World Forum on Peace and Security