How the Ukraine War impacted the global food supply chain
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the world braced for geopolitical fallout. But few fully anticipated the far-reaching consequences the war would have on something as fundamental as the global food supply. The war has exposed just how interconnected and vulnerable our global food systems truly are: the sudden disruptions in the production and transportation of Ukrainian grains have indeed caused a dramatic price spike and worsened food insecurity, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Middle East and North Africa.
Before the war, Ukraine was one of the top global exporters of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil. Together with Russia, it supplied nearly 30% of the world’s wheat exports, seeing countries in Africa, the Middle East, in particular in nations like Egypt, Lebanon, and Somalia, and parts of Asia heavily reliant on this supply. As such, the United Nations’ Food Price Index warned that the eruption of the war led to a significant shortage of food in those regions which are now at severe risk of food insecurity: as the major route of transportation, the Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, are now unsafe, and many cultivation sites in Ukraine have been destroyed, grain price skyrocketed from $270 to $500 per ton (Smith, 2025).
The impact of the war is also being deeply felt by Ukrainian farmers. Before the war, Ukrainian farmers earned around $270 per ton of grain. However, due to disruptions in production, transportation, and storage caused by the war, their earnings dropped to only $100 per ton for two consecutive harvest seasons, below production costs (Smith, 2025). Meanwhile, farmers in the US and EU saw a major increase of their profits, experiencing the highest revenue in more than two decades. Overall, the war has caused agricultural economic losses of around $70 billion, with a third of the capital in the sector destroyed. This significant drop in earnings is putting immense pressure on Ukraine’s agricultural economy, exacerbating the challenges brought on by the conflict.
The war didn’t just affect grain: Russia is a key exporter of fertilizers and natural gas, both essential to global agriculture. As the US and Europe have started applying heavy sanctions on the country, the costs of fertilizers also increased, further pushing up food production expenses globally. This compounded the problem, creating a domino effect in which farmers worldwide faced higher costs, resulting in reduced yields and even greater food inflation.
There have been attempts to marginalize the problem and find a sustainable solution. In 2022, the UN and Turkey brokered an agreement, the Black Sea Grain Initiative, to briefly restore some Ukrainian grain exports via safe corridors. While it offered temporary relief, the agreement was fragile and eventually suspended, demonstrating the complexity of the situation within a conflict zone. Countries have since scrambled to diversify their sources, but rebuilding food security is a long process that requires sustainable solutions.
The Ukraine war has taught the world a hard lesson: food security is global security. The conflict also revealed the dangers of overdependence on limited sources in a specific region of the world, highlighting the need for more resilient, diversified supply chains. Finally, the war came as a monitor that, despite it might feel geographically distant for many, its effects, in the short and long term, have been able to spread across borders, affecting global food security. As such, it became more and more clear that the world must invest in agricultural resilience, diversify trade partnerships, and support innovations in sustainable food production.
Resource:
Smith A. (2025) New Study Shows How Ukraine War Impacts Global Food Supply Chain, Urges Alternative Routes for Grains, published by Informs, available at: New Study Shows How Ukraine War Impacts Global Food Supply Chain, Urges Alternative Routes for Grains – INFORMS
By The World Forum on Peace and Security
