China- Russia: from frenemies to an enduring alliance?

Three decades after the end of the Cold War, the announcement of new sanctions on the Russian Federation from the United States, for meddling in the US elections and for threatening the sovereignty of Ukraine, bring up memories from the past (Hunnicat et al, 2021). However, the world has changed dramatically from the bipolarity of the second half of the twentieth century, and even the unipolar system that prevailed after the end of the Cold War seems that it is coming to its end. Another pole, with China and Russia is gradually looming, threatening the order and the stability of the “pax Americana”. How did these two great powers cooperate and what are their goals?

The Bear and the Dragon: Allies without an Alliance?

After the end of the Cold and especially at the dawn of the new millennia, Sino-Russian views on the American led world order started to merge. China and Russia were constantly dissatisfied from US’ unipolar system and they constantly emphasized the need for multipolarity and for regional governance (Korolev, 2016). On the one hand, immediately after his rise onto the Russian Presidency, Vladimir Putin wanted to return the glory the Soviet Union whose fall described as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” (NBC, 2005). Thus for him and the Russian oligarchy, the demise of the Russian power was a fatal mistake that had to be restored. On the other hand, Beijing learned the lesson from the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and did everything to avoid a Chinese Gorbachev, while hesitating to directly confront the US.

            In this framework, the two great powers started gradually, but steadily to enhance their bilateral relations in trade as well as in military cooperation (Korolev, 2016; Tisdall, 2021). Even though they had signed already from 2001 a treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, Moscow and Beijing started combining their forces especially after the outbreak of the war in Syria. They coordinated their actions inside the Security Council of the UN, countering US’ retaliating measures against the Assad regime and advocating for the necessity for him to stay in power. They also enhanced their cooperation inside regional organisations such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). What is more, their cooperation expanded rapidly in the economic sector. Trade flows were augmented substantially, from 56 billion US dollars in 2010 to almost 110 billion in 2019 (UN Comtrade, 2021). In 2014 the two countries also signed a 400 billion US dollars “mega-deal”, involving gas sales to China and a joint construction of a pipeline and of a high-speed railroad that would connect Moscow and Kazan (Korolev, 2016: 389). On the financial sector, the central banks of the two countries agreed on a foreign exchange swap, worth more than 150 billion Yuan. In addition mutual cooperation in civilian and military areas has also been upgraded substantially in recent years. In 2015, the two powers reached an agreement to jointly design a non-military aircraft and four years later they joined the military forces for the first time to mount an air patrol using long range bombers and spy planes above the Sea of Japan (Korolev, 2016; Tisdall, 2019). Finally, in March of 2021, the Russian space agency Roscosmos and its Chinese counterpart CNSA, announced their plans to develop a research facility on the surface of the moon or in its orbit (Guardian, 2021).

Moscow and Beijing: Not an idyllic couple 

Nevertheless the intense cooperation does not come without mutual suspicion. Despite the common position on multilateralism, extremism and their aversion for democracy, the two powers live under a cloud of mutual distrust (Eder, 2014; Freeman, 2017). The main sphere of Sino- Russian competition in the region is the energy sector and their influence in central Asia. Since Beijing launched its Belt and Road Initiative in 2012, many Russian analysts doubt that Chinese influence in the ex-Soviet states can be contained, regarding the BRI as a tool to bring those states into China’s geoeconomic orbit (Freeman, 2017: 13). Thus, the massive Chinese capital flows into central Asia, have triggered a wave of concern in Russian economic and political elites who try to maintain its stature in the region, by strengthening its economic, military and cultural ties in the region.

Conclusion: A potential new pole that could challenge the West

To summarize, Sino –Russian relations are marked not only from increasing cooperation in different sectors but also from an underlying regional antagonism.As Korolev (2016: 397) notes: “The interaction between these two great powers represents a two-level pattern wherein anti-unipolar systemic balancing coexists with regional hedging in the salient geographic environments”. China and Russia are seeing themselves as losers of the unilateral US-led world order (Korolev, 2018). China wants to expand its influence worldwide and Russia wants to revamp the lost glory of the Soviet Union. Hence the two countries are characterized as revisionist powers, harsh critics of the current status quo with expansionist views on Eastern Europe and the Caucasus on the one hand, and on South China Sea and Taiwan on the other. Ergo, even though both countries do have a certain level of distrust for each other, they tend to focus more on the areas of common interest, moving rapidly towards becoming strategic partners, affecting not only the regional balance equilibrium but also the world as a whole.

Should the US and Europe worry? Yes. Even though the two countries have not formed an “enduring alliance”” yet, nevertheless Russia can more or less use China as a bulwark against European and US economic sanctions for its actions in Ukraine and the Caucasus, and as a result the European Union cannot count to its economic leverage on Russian gas imports for much longer. At the same time China gains a powerful partner that shares the same vision for a multilateral world order, increasing its military capabilities via the ever closer military cooperation with Moscow.

How can the West react? First and foremost, the US ought to expand their support and cooperation with East Asian states like India, Japan, Australia, Taiwan and South Korea to orchestrate a coherent containment policy towards Chinese expansion. On the Old continent, the European states have to adopt a single voice via the Common Security and Foreign Policy and pay their share according to NATO’s guidelines. Finally, it is of primordial importance to maintain open communication on a high level between Washington, Moscow and Beijing to solve bilateral problems and avoid regional conflicts.

References

China and Russia unveil joint plan for lunar space station. (2021, April 16). Guardian International Edition. Retrieved in 2021, April 16, from https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/10/china-and-russia-unveil-joint-plan-for-lunar-space-station

Freeman, C. P. (2017). New strategies for an old rivalry? China–Russia relations in Central Asia after the energy boom. The Pacific Review, 1–20.

Hunnicutt, T., Mohammed, A., & Osborn, A. (2021). U.S. imposes wide array of sanctions on Russia for ‘malign’ actions. Reuters. Retrieved in 2021, April 16, from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-imposes-wide-array-sanctions-russia-malign-actions-2021-04-15/

Korolev, A. (2016). Systemic Balancing and Regional Hedging: China–Russia Relations. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Volume 9, Issue 4, Winter, Pages 375–397

Korolev, A. (2018). On the Verge of an Alliance: Contemporary China-Russia Military Cooperation. Asian Security, 1–20.

Putin: Soviet collapse a ‘genuine tragedy’ (2005, April 25), NBC, Retrieved in 2021, April 16, from https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna7632057

Tisdall, S. (2021, April 11). China v Russia v America: is 2021 the year Orwell’s 1984 comes true? Guardian International Edition. Retrieved in 2021, April 16, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/china-v-russia-v-america-is-2021-the-year-orwells-1984-comes-true

Tisdall, S. (2019, Jul 27). Now that Putin is Xi’s ‘best and bosom friend’, where does that leave the west? Guardian International Edition. Retrieved in 2021, April 16, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/27/simon-tisdall-putin-xi-bosom-friends-china-russia-trump-asia

UN COMTRADE Database. Data retrieved in 2021, April 16, from https://comtrade.un.org/data/